对基于J.C.Martin经验公式的多层长渡越时间轴向绝缘堆的闪络概率分析方法进行了分析与总结.在对比各种类似分析方法优劣的基础上,提出了一种较为成熟的针对多层长渡越时间轴向绝缘堆的闪络概率分析方法,为类似绝缘堆结构的设计提供了理论依据.同时,对其中的不确定因素和存在的问题也进行了较为详细的分析和讨论,为闪络概率分析方法的进一步完善奠定了基础.

Based on Martin equation, the paper summarizes the calculation method of flashover probability of vacuum insulator stack, which has many insulator stages and large azimuthal transit time, under a given voltage waveform. 1/4 power time dependence and 1/10 power area dependence are chosen in analysis. Then the flashover probabilities of vacuum insulator stack of SATURN and Z machine are calculated as examples. The theoretical criteria for similar vacuum insulator stack design are offered. The paper also detailedly discusses the uncertain factors and existent questions, and establishes the base for further optimizing of the analysis methods.