传统故障树分析方法需要获取事件发生概率的精确值,忽略了数据的不完备性和模糊性。在火控计算机系统可靠性研究中提出模糊故障树分析方法。建立火控计算机系统的故障树,采用三角模糊数描述基本事件发生概率,计算得到顶事件发生概率的置信区间,并采用中值法计算基本事件的模糊重要度。结果更加符合实际情况,表明该方法用于可靠性分析合理可行。

To gain the exact value of the probability of event occurrence is necessary in the traditional fault tree analysis method,which negelect the fact that the data are imperfect and fuzzy. The fuzzy fault tree analysis method is bring forward for studying fire control computer system's reliability. The fault tree of fire control computer system is built and the occurrence probability of basic events is described as the triangular fuzzy number. The confidence interval of top event is calculated and the fuzzy significance of basic events is obtained with the median method. Results approach to the actural condition,which indicate that the fuzzy fault tree analysis method for reliability analysis is feasible.