为合理评估DSP 预警卫星的探测能力，提出了以卫星规定的探测概率、虚警概率、目标首次捕获时间和最低探测高度为指标并对卫星探测过程进行系统建模的仿真评估方法。通过建立卫星与导弹间位置参数模型、导弹目标红外辐射模型、导弹弹道模型、大气背景辐射模型和卫星探测器噪声模型，并结合STK 软件构建了DSP 预警卫星探测能力仿真评估系统。利用该系统开展仿真研究得出如下结论：在保持天气状况和卫星与导弹间的位置关系不变的前提下，卫星系统规定的探测概率越大或虚警概率越小，DSP 预警卫星的可靠性越高，探测能力先减弱后保持不变；在保持卫星规定的探测概率和虚警概率以及卫星与导弹间的位置关系不变的前提下，DSP 预警卫星晴天在2.7 μm 波段的探测能力比云天强；在保持卫星规定的探测概率和虚警概率以及天气状况不变的前提下，DSP 预警卫星对高纬度目标的探测能力比对低纬度目标弱。

To intelligently evaluate the detectability of DSP early-warning satellite, a simulated scheme of system modeling for the process of satellite detecting is proposed based on the detection probability, the false alarm probability, the first instant when a target is captured and the minimum detection altitude. Through the assistance of STK, and the establishment of a series of models for the positioning parameters between satellite and missile, for the infrared radiation of missile target, the trajectory of missile, atmospheric background radiation and the noise of satellite detector, we constructed the simulated system for evaluating the detectability of DSP early-warning satellite. Some major findings were indicated when the system was applied in a simulation research. If the position relationship between satellite and missile remains constant and the weather condition is stable, the detectability of DSP early-warning satellite varies inversely as the detection probability of satellite and directly as the false alarm probability of satellite firstly, then keeps stable. If the detection probability of the satellite, the false alarm probability of the satellite and the position relationship between satellite and missile all remain constant, the detectability of the satellite within the wave band of 2.7 μm in clear weather is superior to that in cloudy weather. If the detection probability of the satellite and the false alarm probability of the satellite remain constant and the weather condition is stable, the detectability of the satellite for low latitude target is superior to its detectability for high latitude target.