针对目前国内在空地导弹对复杂目标的杀伤概率方面研究的不足, 以及空地导弹靶试中对杀伤概率鉴定的迫切需求, 以空地导弹攻击某型防空导弹雷达车为例, 从目标的易损性、战斗部毁伤能力、目标模型、炸点和破片飞散模型以及综合杀伤概率5个方面构建了杀伤概率的评估模型。通过蒙特卡罗法仿真分析了CEP对杀伤概率的影响。仿真结果表明破片杀伤、冲击波杀伤以及综合杀伤概率与CEP的变化密切相关。

The kill probability of air-to-ground missile against complex targets needs to be researched systematically, and it is an urgently needed project to evaluate the kill probability in missile shooting test.A method for kill probability evaluation was proposed by taking air-to-ground missile against air defense radar vehicle as an example.The model for evaluating the kill probability was constructed based on the following five aspects:target vulnerability, power of warhead, model of the target, models of explosion point and fragment flying, and the comprehensive kill probability.The impact of CEP on kill probability was analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation.The result shows that the kill probabilities of fragmentation and the shock wave, and the comprehensive kill probability, are all closely relative to the changing of CEP.