红外, 2015, 36 (11): 13, 网络出版: 2016-01-25  

国内外卫星遥感监测台风的结果分析与对比研究——3以号“菲特”台风为例

Analysis and Comparison of Typhoon Monitoring Results of Satellite Remote Sensing at Home and Abroad —Taking 1323 ‘FITOW’ Typhoon as an Example
作者单位
1 上海市卫星气象遥感应用中心, 上海 201199
2 中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030
摘要
基于多源卫星资料特别是微波定量化产品开展综合分析,是卫星遥感台风监测技术未来发展的必然趋势。更客观的综合定强技术有助于在总体上提高台风强度的预报水平。以2013年第23号强台风“菲特”为例,采用台风最佳路径结果对国内外常见的几家热带气旋预报机构(中央气象台、上海气象局、日本气象厅、美国关岛、美国国家海洋和大气局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA) 、美国国家环境卫星数据和信息服务中心(National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, NESDIS)和美国热带气旋中心(Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, CIMSS))的定位、定强结果及导致结果差异的可能原因进行了详细的对比分析。结果表明,各家机构的路径监测结果较一致,白天的结果比夜间更可靠。中央气象台、上海气象局、美国关岛和美国NOAA区域中尺度气象局(Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, RAMMB)四家机构的风速预报结果最接近。中央气象台的预报误差最小,精度最高; 其次是上海气象局、美国关岛和RAMMB; 美国CIMSS发布的结果最不稳定,日本气象厅发布的结果的误差整体偏低。分析结果对台风一线的业务值班人员具有较好的借鉴意义。
Abstract
The comprehensive analysis based on multi-source satellite data, especially the microwave quantitative products, is the inevitable trend of typhoon monitoring using satellite remote sensing in the future. More objective comprehensivetyphoon position and intensity determining technique is helpful to the overall improvement of typhoon intensity prediction. Taking the severe typhoon ‘FITOW’ in 2013 as an example, the typhoon location and intensity determination results issued by several tropical cyclone forecasting organizations at home and abroad including the National Meteorological center of China (NMC/CMA), Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (SMB), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Guam, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), National Environmental satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) and Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) and the possible causes for the differences in issued results are compared and analyzed in detail. The analysis results show that the path prediction results issued by the above organizations are relatively consistent. The path prediction results in the daytime are more reliable than those at night. The wind speed prediction results issued by NMC, SMB, Guamand Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) are close to each other. The results from NMC have the least error and the highest accuracy. The results from SMB, Guam and RAMMB are in the second place. The results from CIMSS are most unstable. Theresults from JMA have a lower error on the whole. This analysis is of referential value to the typhoon prediction servicemen on duty.

崔林丽, 鲁小琴, 朱雪松. 国内外卫星遥感监测台风的结果分析与对比研究——3以号“菲特”台风为例[J]. 红外, 2015, 36(11): 13. CUI Lin-li, LU Xiao-qin, ZHU Xue-song. Analysis and Comparison of Typhoon Monitoring Results of Satellite Remote Sensing at Home and Abroad —Taking 1323 ‘FITOW’ Typhoon as an Example[J]. INFRARED, 2015, 36(11): 13.

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