无源光网络（PON）凭借其大带宽、低成本和抗电磁干扰等优势，被认为是下一代工业互联网的重要组网技术之一。然而，以“带宽提升”为主要技术发展思路的常规PON，其传输控制机制难以满足以“时间敏感”为特征的高品质工业业务传输需求，对常规PON的网络传输能力提出了重要挑战，迫使其融入新的特性，即确定性。文章以时分复用（TDM）-PON为主要研究对象，首先阐述了工业互联网的业务特征及传输需求，分析了工业互联场景下常规TDM-PON面临的两大技术挑战：一是传统带宽分配方案引起的时延不确定性；二是队列调度机制僵化引起的时延不确定性。围绕上述挑战，文章介绍了提升TDM-PON确定性网络传输能力的关键技术，如协作传输接口、单帧多突发和确定性带宽分配（DetBA）等。其次，文章介绍了一种基于网络演算的时延边界建模思路作为确定性工业PON系统设计与性能评估的理论模型。最后，文章从业务层、媒质接入控制（MAC）层、物理层及控制管理平面等多个角度探讨了确定性工业PON的潜在技术及发展方向。

Passive Optical Network (PON) is considered a crucial networking technology for the next-generation industrial Internet due to its advantages of high bandwidth, cost-effectiveness and resistance to electromagnetic interference. However, the technical development of conventional PON is based on the principle of "bandwidth enhancement"，making its transmission scheduling mechanism difficult to meet the transmission requirements of "time-sensitive" industrial services. This poses a significant challenge to the network transmission capability of conventional PON, necessitating the incorporation of determinism as a new characteristic. This paper mainly focuses on the Time Division Multiplexing (TDM)-PON. Firstly, it illustrates the service characteristics and transmission requirements of industrial Internet, and analyzes the two major technical challenges faced by conventional TDM-PON in industrial Internet scenarios: one being uncertain delays caused by the traditional bandwidth allocation scheme; and the other being uncertain delays caused by the inflexible scheduling mechanism. Addressing these challenges, this paper summarizes the key technologies to enhance the deterministic transmission capability of TDM-PON, such as collaborative transmission interfaces, multi-bursts per frame, and Deterministic Bandwidth Allocation (DetBA). Furthermore, this paper proposes a network calculus-based delay boundary modeling method as a theoretical model for designing and evaluating the performance of deterministic industrial PON systems. Finally, potential technologies and directions for deterministic industrial PON are discussed, including the service layer, the Media Access Control (MAC) layer, the physical layer, and the control and management plane.