利用合肥气象站点1953~2011年的日平均气温资料,应用Mann-Kendal法分析了合肥地区近60年 由冬入春(1~4月)的日平均气温变化情况。确定了日平均气温变化趋势,合肥地区日平均 气温上升的始点和突变点,并利用 Yamamoto法对突变点做了检验。对气温上升始点和经过验 证的突变点的日期进行了频数统计。结果表明,合肥地区由冬入春气温上升始点的波动性较 大,对应日期分布比较离散,位于1月30日~2月10日的相对较多。气温突变点的起伏较小,对应日 期分布比较集中,位于1月10日~15日的最多,而位于1月10日~20日的天数频率超过了50%。

Based on the data of daily mean temperature of Hefei from 1953 to 2011, the change characteristics of daily mean temperature from winter to spring (January to April) of Hefei in recent 60 years have been analyzed by using Mann-Kendal technique. The change trend of the daily mean temperature, the beginning points and the break points of the daily mean temperature raise have been shown. The calculation results are tested by Yamamoto Test. The frequencies of the dates have been analyzed. The results showed that the fluctuations of the beginning points were large, and the distribution of corresponding dates was scatted. The days between 30th January and 10th February were more than other months. The fluctuations of break points were small. The corresponding dates intensively occured between the 10th and 15th January. The frequencies of dates between the 10th and 20th January were more than 50%.