研究了预警机指挥多编队作战对空中突防目标进行威胁评估的问题。首先介绍了模糊数学中的模糊变换和模糊综合评判原理，然后以预警机指挥控制系统为例，基于多属性决策，分析了与目标威胁程度大小有关的6个重要因素，建立目标的威胁评估模型，最后提出基于变权模糊综合评判的目标威胁评估算法。由于是同时考虑各因素对于威胁准则和内部之间的相对重要性得到的权值，使得该算法的权值分配结果更加准确，有效弥补了专家主观赋值的不足。通过算例分析，验证了变权思想下该算法的有效性以及精度更高的优点。

The threat assessment of air penetration vehicle is studied based on weight-variation fuzzy comprehensive judgment. Firstly，fuzzy transform and fuzzy comprehensive judgement principle，theories of fuzzy mathematics，are introduced.Then taking the Airborne Warning and Control System(AWACS) for example，six key factors related to threat level of the target are analyzed via multi-attribute decision making，and a model of threat assessment is established.Finally，an algorithm for target threat assessment is proposed on the basis of weight-variation fuzzy comprehensive judgment.Weights for each factor in this algorithm are derived from its comparative importance to the threat rule and to other factors，thus the results are more precise.The algorithm also effectively remedies the demerit of experts subjective evaluation.Example analysis shows the effectiveness and higher precision of this algorithm.